The survey on which the BCIs are based is the first opinion poll conducted by the INE, and it is prepared based on a representative sample of 7,694 establishments, whose opinions began to be collected for the first quarter of 2012.
Summary of Results
The Harmonised Business Confidence Index (HBCI) of the INE stands at 101.39 points for the second quarter of 2012, indicating an improvement of 1.39 points, in the confidence of businesspersons, with regard to the first quarter (base 100).
There is a reduction in the lack of confidence by businesspersons regarding the future performance of their business in the second quarter of the year. In this sense, for the whole of Spain, the Balance of Expectations, that is, the difference between the opinions of optimistic and pessimistic business establishments, reaches -35 points in the second quarter, as compared with the -44 points registered in the first quarter, indicating a nine-point improvement.
Despite the improvement this quarter, the business confidence climate remains unfavourable. 8% of business establishments are optimistic regarding the future performance of their business as the quarter commences, whereas 43% are pessimistic.
Opinions regarding the coming quarter (Expectations)
8% of establishments believed that the performance of their business during the second quarter of the year would be favourable, whereas 43% believed that it would be unfavourable. The remaining 49% believed that it would be normal.
The difference between the percentages of favourable and unfavourable responses, known as the Balance of Expectations, stood at -35 points for Spain as a whole.
In the first quarter, 6% of the establishments believed that the performance of the business would be favourable, whilst 50% believed that it would be unfavourable, with the Balance of Expectations thus standing at -44 points.
Therefore, the lack of confidence by businesspersons as per Expectations decreased nine points (-44 points in the first quarter, and -35 points in the second).
Opinions regarding the last quarter (Situation)
In terms of the responses regarding the last quarter, 7% of the establishments expressed a favourable opinion regarding the past performance of their business in the first quarter, as compared with the 48% that had an unfavourable opinion.
The difference between these percentages of favourable and unfavourable responses referring to the last quarter, known as the Situation Balance, stood at -41 points, thereby improving the Expectations previously expressed for that first quarter, which stood at -44 points.
You can download the full report here: Business Confidence Indicators – Second quarter of 2012